Xpeng Motors, coming from the gunfire.

Scale, scale or scale

Author | Qin Zhangyong

In the past year, the share dispute was a matter of life and death. Even leading enterprises such as Tesla and BYD had to cut prices and fight hand in hand. The Matthew effect shattered the speed of light in the industry bubble.

But we should thank this price war.

Nowadays, the market no longer believes in beautiful stories, and begins to pay attention to who can make blood independently and who can have the advantages of scale. Only enterprises that have experienced the most intense artillery fire can exercise their strong vitality and create better products.

After ten years of development and continuous organizational changes throughout the year, Xpeng Motors’s accumulated energy began to be reflected in the financial report.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Xpeng Motors ushered in a milestone result, delivering 60,000 units in a single season.Gross profit margin turned positive again, reaching 6.2%. In the first three quarters of last year, Tucki’s gross profit margin was negative, and in the fourth quarter, it rose by 8.9 percentage points from the previous month, and its total revenue reached 13.05 billion yuan, up 154% year-on-year and 53% from the previous month.

The most important thing is that Tucki was realized for the first time in 2023.Annual operating cash flow turned positive. By the end of last year, Xpeng Motors’s cash reserves reached 45.7 billion yuan, a net increase of 9.2 billion yuan from the previous month, and its positive free cash flow exceeded 6 billion yuan.

With these ammunition, Xpeng Motors’s thinking of solving problems is no longer limited, releasing the second brand, opening up a new sinking market, landing a big AI model, and of course, going international.

In 2023, Tucki began to quickly adjust its state and gradually climbed out of the trough.

01

More will "make money"

Gross profit margin began to turn positive, which is not a simple matter of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure. Behind it is the improvement of operating system efficiency and the gradual maturity of products and commercial capabilities, which is also the key for Tucki to cross the cycle and face the future.

Last April, it was a turning point in Xpeng Motors and was officially released.SEPA 2.0 boosting architectureThis is the only integrated aluminum die-casting and global 800V high-voltage SiC silicon carbide platform before and after mass production in China.

With this brand-new architecture, the development cycle of new cars in Tucki has been shortened by 20%, and the generalization rate of structural parts has reached 80%. The comprehensive efficiency of 800V XPOWER can be increased to 92%, surpassing 91.4% of American head brand new energy vehicles.

To sum up, reduce costs and increase efficiency.

Tucki G6 is the first strategic vehicle with a swing structure. With the advantage of platform-based research and development, the price war has been directly brought to a new dimension with a starting price of 209,900 yuan.

The 250,000-class new energy market is the most competitive price zone for car companies. Tesla, BYD and traditional giants are all desperately grabbing shares, battery costs are also ups and downs, and the public opinion environment is even more tragic. Without Tesla’s brand aura and the cost advantage of BYD’s self-made battery, it is difficult to control the cost in a short time.

The sales curve proves Tucki’s choice. After its listing in June last year, Tucki G6′ s delivery volume kept rising, successively setting a record of monthly sales exceeding 20,000, and winning the market sales champion of 200,000-250,000 grade pure electric SUV.

After the brand-new Tucki G9 went on the market, the sales volume rebounded rapidly, and the proportion of sales volume increased continuously in the brand structure. This has also helped Tucki raise the average price of bicycles,In the fourth quarter, the average price of bicycles reached 203,000 yuan, an increase of about 7,000 yuan compared with the third quarter..

The gross profit margin of automobiles reached 4.1% in the fourth quarter, compared with negative 6.1% in the third quarter of 2023.The chain increased by over 10 percentage points.

On the Q4 conference call, He Xiaopeng bluntly said that the total revenue in the fourth quarter increased month-on-month, mainly due to the rapid growth of sales of G6 and G9. With the help of platform-based R&D and scale effect, Tucki can effectively reduce the supply chain cost and manufacturing cost, and accelerate the realization of the goal of reducing BOM cost by 25% by the end of 2024.

In January this year, Tucki X9 was officially launched. As the most expensive model in Tucki, He Xiaopeng revealed that nearly 4,000 units have been delivered in two months, and it is expected that the sales volume in March and April will be greatly improved.

The income guidance given in the first quarter is 5.8-6 billion yuan. Combined with the sales guidance of 21-22,500 vehicles, it means that the average bicycle price will exceed 230,000, which is higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year. Obviously, the climb of X9 sales will inevitably increase Xiaopeng’s gross profit margin.

In this way, Xpeng Motors has also achieved it to a certain extent.Brand upward.

At the same time, with the continuous decline in the cost of lithium carbonate, including the large space for cost optimization brought by the internal organizational structure, the bicycle cost in Xpeng Motors is also declining. According to the financial report, the bicycle cost in Xpeng Motors decreased by about 10,000 yuan from the previous month to 191,000 yuan.

At this point, the route for Xpeng Motors’s gross profit to turn positive is very clear: diluting the cost with the advantage of platform, raising the selling price with the help of high-end models, and at the same time, carrying out internal structural adjustment, superimposing the natural law of reducing the cost of raw materials in the industry, and realizing positive cash flow.

02

Winning by scale

Turning the gross profit margin positive is only the beginning. How can a car company live well?

Scale, scale or scale.

Tesla’s ambition is to sell 20 million vehicles by 2030. Even if Weilai, who is holding high, is ready to launch a second brand "Ledao" to occupy a lower-priced market.

"We don’t use short-term and small-scale growth as a starting point to lay out the future."

He Xiaopeng bluntly said in the conference call that the next competition will not only depend on the short-term scale share, but also test whether the car companies will continue to lead in many dimensions such as high-quality and efficient scale, intelligence and internationalization.

Facing the future, Xpeng Motors has started the strategy of "group car-riding".

In the next three years, more than 10 brand-new models will be launched. Together with the global left and right rudder models and upgraded models, the total number of SOP models will reach nearly 30. This figure means that Xpeng Motors has got rid of the idea of start-ups.Began to develop towards all categories and globalization..

The first is a brand-new brand. Like Weilai, Tucki’s second brand is also ready to go. He Xiaopeng revealed that during the Beijing Auto Show next month, a brand-new brand for 100,000-150,000 will be officially launched, and it is committed to building the first AI smart car for young people. "This will be the most eye-catching explosion in the A-class pure electric market this year. New model."

This brand-new model will enter the C-end market first. Gu Hongdi, co-president of Xpeng Motors, said in the earnings conference call that MONA will contribute 10,000 sales every month, and such sales scale will be considered "very successful" internally.

Different from the market of more than 200,000, the new energy vehicles with 100,000-150,000 grades face greater difficulties. Companies such as Tesla and Huawei are trying to enter this market, but it is difficult to make a profit because of the high cost of batteries and smart driving systems. Not long ago, Yu Chengdong bluntly said that the cost of Huawei’s intelligent driving system is high. "Only more than 300,000 vehicles can use us to make a profit."

He Xiaopeng is also well aware of the difficulty of the market. He said that it is extremely difficult to make a good car with excellent performance in all aspects and high-level intelligent driving ability in this range, and to achieve profitability, which requires enterprises to have strong scale and systematic ability.

"Today, we are finally ready." In his view, the innovation of AI-driven smart car technology and architecture is no longer a medium-and long-term goal.AI-defined cars with autonomous driving as the core are now in progress..

At the scene of 1024 last year, Tucki revealed that the AI ? ? big model got on the bus, and now there is a clear timetable-the mass production of the AI ? ? smart driving big model got on the bus in the second quarter of this year.

This is still inseparable from the advantages of scale. At the beginning of this year, Tucki began to push XNGP to Max users in full, and the active penetration rate of users reached 83% in February. With the increase of XNGP usage, He Xiaopeng also set a KPI for the team:

I hope that XNGP’s travel experience in core areas, such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen, will be compared with Waymo’s Robotaxi in San Francisco.

What is certain is that with the brand-new sub-brand landing, the hardware cost of XNGP will be reduced with high probability. He Xiaopeng revealed that Xpeng Motors’s main brand will release a brand-new model in the second half of this year. "From this brand-new model, the hardware cost of XNGP has dropped by 50%."

In addition to the domestic market, Tucki also tried to replicate the advantages of scale abroad.

He Xiaopeng revealed that the expansion of overseas business has been greatly accelerated this year. In the second quarter, the international left-rudder version of G6 will be launched for the global market, and the right-rudder version of G6 will be launched in the second half of the year. In the future, we will enter Europe, Middle East, Southeast Asia and Commonwealth countries by cooperating with high-quality distributors.

03

Marketing+channel innovation

On the conference call, He Xiaopeng mentioned Wang Fengying the most frequently.

As an experienced automobile veteran, Wang Fengying’s entry into Tucki has brought about earth-shaking changes, not only a mature channel system, but also rich dealer resources. Wang Fengying is highly praised in Xpeng Motors, including He Xiaopeng.

In September last year, under the impetus of Wang Fengying, Tucki began to implement a channel reform plan called "Jupiter Plan", with the aim of eliminating inefficient direct stores and expanding the size of the stores of agent dealers. In addition to reducing costs, this innovative measure is moreLayout sales ability in advanceTo build a more efficient marketing channel system.

He Xiaopeng revealed that in 2023, a round of channel upgrading was completed, with over 130 stores eliminated at the end, and more than 160 excellent dealer partners were introduced, covering 40 new low-tier cities.

In 2024, while cultivating new stores, Tucki will accelerate the channel sinking. By the third quarter of this year, the total number of stores will increase to 600.

For the first time, He Xiaopeng responded positively to the rumor that "dealers are required to reserve inventory", saying that starting from the second quarter of this year, an innovative dealer cooperation model will be launched. By establishing short-term channel inventory for about half a month, the purpose is to speed up terminal delivery and fully activate the enthusiasm of dealers.

In fact, this adjustment in Tucki is not unusual in the automobile industry. It is an open secret that traditional car companies have pressed the dealers for inventory, and some good-looking sales figures are in many cases bought by dealers under pressure.

The inventory ratio of domestic car dealers will generally be around 2 months, and the inventory ratio of some economical family cars will even be higher. The purpose of doing so is also very simple, sales promotion.

In order to avoid the disadvantages of the traditional sales model of 4S stores, Xpeng Motors will strictly control the inventory level and the nationwide unified user purchase experience through systems and monitoring mechanisms.

In addition to the changes in dealer channels, the gameplay of marketing has also begun to adjust.

He Xiaopeng said that in 2024, a strong new marketing team will be established, paying more attention to the marketing of short videos, and reducing inefficient shopping, and upgrading from the original "car+internet" to "car+mobile internet".

For example, during the Spring Festival in Tucki, 20,000 users participated in the activity of soliciting video of car owner Spring Festival travel rush Zhijia, which also made the reputation of Tucki Zhijia spread from first-tier cities to third-and fourth-tier cities. From the recent month, the front-end planting data has increased by more than 100%.

In addition, Wang Fengying also put his own brand innovation strategy in Tucki. During the Great Wall period, Wang Fengying made Deerpika a champion in the market segment by reforming the sales model, and later gave birth to the Haval H6 with the concept of "urban SUV".

He Xiaopeng said that in terms of product planning, Xpeng Motors will insist on category innovation, because category innovation is the innovation with the greatest value, and the differentiation advantage of new categories is far greater than the "involution" of homogenized products. For example, Tucki X9 has created a new category compatible with 4-seater and 7-seater large cars. With the shape of MPV, it has largely cut off the medium and large SUV market.

In the past year, for Xpeng Motors, the external market environment, internal organizational structure, products and channels were all experiencing severe turbulence, but fortunately, Xpeng Motors stood the test.

Next, the wind and rain are still the same, the competition is still the same, and great uncertainty still hangs over every player’s head. Xpeng Motors, who has experienced artillery fire and wind and waves, has found the most suitable way for himself.